Most of life’s hardest decisions are gambles. If you dare hard enough and succeed, you’re a hero. If you fail at it, you’re delusional and unrealistic.
Since England lost the EURO 2020 Finals with the hugely talented Bukayo Saka losing England’s final kick, the manager, Gareth Southgate, has come under attack for his tactics and the decision to let the teenage Saka take the decisive final kick.
But the conversation would be different right now if the shot had gone in. If Saka had scored, he would be further recognised as a generational talent mentioned in the same breath as Mbappe and co for scoring the goal that brought the trophy ‘back home’ 55 years after it left. He would probably have won the MVP award and Southgate would probably be a knight right now.
But because things turned out differently, it’s easy to knock the manager for that move and wonder why that kind of weight should be put on a teenager.
Hindsight bias makes us think that we can predict how things would turn out or look back at events and say we knew it was going to turn out this or that way even though we had no idea how it would turn out.
We believe that because Saka didn’t score, we’ve always known that a teenager like that would be under so much pressure and would lose the penalty. But he could have scored too.
If a footballer dribbles 7 people without passing and scores, he's a genius. If he dribbles 7 people without passing the ball and does not score, he's a selfish player. Shouldn't he have passed the ball? See 3 people waiting for him in the 18 yard box. Why didn't he pass?
And yet, often, moments that define great footballing careers happen when footballers opt to be selfish and take on 3, 4 players alone before scoring, even at the risk of losing the goal and being called selfish.
If a manager’s team scores a goal in 10 minutes and then defends successfully for the remaining 80 minutes, he’s very good at protecting leads. But if his team concedes a late goal in the 87th minute and loses the match, his tactics would come under fire. What was he thinking? You want to defend a lead for 80 minutes? How is that possible?
In keenly contested football matches, winning sometimes boils down to a split-second decision by one player to shoot immediately or take two more steps before shooting. That decision could be the difference between the team that celebrates and the one that cries on the pitch.
The world celebrates the man who takes crazy decisions and wins and vilifies the one that loses after taking crazy decisions. But when considered deeply, there’s a thin line between the winner and the loser, and it could have gone either way for both of them, no matter how assured, unshakeable and how much of a no-brainer the decision looks.
Last night, Saka could easily have been the hero that brought the trophy back home after 55 years and Gareth could have been the genius that made it happen, with comparisons to some of the managerial greats. The world would have found a way to spin his decision to take out experienced players and bring in Rashford, Sancho and Saka in a way that makes him look eccentric, unusual and a different thinker.
The point is not to be reckless in decisionmaking, but to not shy away from taking hard decisions because there's the risk of failing. What matters in the long run is that people are never afraid of making hard choices, of stepping out of the line and doing it differently.